Spain wants to charge 100% tax on foreigners

Por Gustavo Favaron

Spain is driving growth in Europe, with a GDP of 3.2% in 2024. Tourism booming, financial sector strong and EU funds helping. But not everything is rosy: public debt remains high and the real estate market faces challenges..

Investors eyeing Spain

The country is already the second most attractive for real estate investments in Europe. In 2025, the sector could grow by 15%, exceeding €16 billion. Madrid and Barcelona are at the top of the list for investments, especially in multifamily and BTR.
 

But hey, let’s not make it too attractive. A 100% tax on non-EU buyers and scrapping the Golden Visa? Genius move—if the goal is to scare off capital. France, Greece, and Portugal are flirting with the same strategy.
 

Where are investors going?

With uncertainty in Europe, the British are already targeting the USA, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus.
 

Optimism in the sector
 

Despite the challenges, the commercial real estate market is responding. Logistics, residential and hospitality remain on the rise. Abrdn predicts a 9% return over the next three years, with premium offices in cities such as London, Paris and Madrid returning to the radar.
 

The game is changing. Anyone who knows how to position themselves now can reap good results soon. I heard from a large SWF a few weeks ago that they are on the market and ready to acquire good offices in London.
 

The Indian government presented Budget 2025-26, promising to boost housing, infrastructure and economic growth. The country's GDP did not grow at the expected pace, but the Central Bank still projects 6.6% expansion for the fiscal year.
 

Impact on the real estate sector
 

Despite not being the main focus, the budget brought some measures that could affect the market:
 

More money in the pockets of the middle class. Those earning up to INR 1.2 million a year are now exempt from income tax, which should encourage property purchases, especially in smaller cities.
 

Less property taxes. It is now possible to declare two properties as exempt, which could attract more investors for second homes.

Ease of rental. Simplified tax rules can increase the liquidity of the rental market.
 

Investments and infrastructure
 

The government also announced Rs10 billion for urban modernization, improvements in land records and new real estate projects. Furthermore, the UDAN program aims to connect 120 new cities, which could increase the value of properties close to new airports and transport corridors.
 

Another highlight is the expansion of the SWAMIH fund, which received INR 150 billion to complete 100,000 stalled residential units, unlocking delayed projects.
 

Tourism and corporate sector on the rise
 

50 tourist destinations will be revitalized, and hotels will gain access to long-term financing.
 

International companies will have more incentives to set up their Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India, increasing demand for office space.
 

Was something missing?
 

Although the measures are welcome, experts felt a lack of more aggressive incentives for the real estate sector. Tax benefits for financing, GST reduction on construction materials and a national rental policy could have given an even bigger boost to the sector.
 

Even so, the market reacted well: real estate stocks rose almost 3%, showing that investors are optimistic about India's growth potential.

 

Mexico is at a crucial moment. At the last GRI Club Latam meeting, we assessed the country's political, economic and real estate scenario with the arrival of the new government.
 

Infrastructure needs investment – but where does the money come from?
 

The country's fiscal space has shrunk in recent years, making private sector participation in public projects essential. To this end, the government launched Plan Mexico, which provides US$277 billion for more than 2,000 projects.
 

But there's one detail: the government doesn't have enough capital to run everything alone. The hope is that adequate mechanisms to attract private investors will be created soon.
 

Energy and industry remain heated
 

With the energy transition gaining momentum, the energy sector and industrial corridors are expected to benefit greatly. In 2024, 2 million m² were sold in the sector, and the growth trend continues.
 

Nearshoring and the Trump factor
 

Claudia Sheinbaum's government will continue to encourage nearshoring, a strategy that could gain even more strength if Donald Trump returns and imposes tariffs of up to 25% on Mexican exports.
 

To attract companies, Mexico has already launched a presidential decree granting tax deductions of up to 91% for investments in fixed assets, with benefits valid until 2026.
 

The movement is great, the challenges are many, but the opportunities for investors have never been so clear.
 

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Rental prices continue to rise. In January alone, the increase was 0.96%, well above the month's inflation (0.16%). In the last 12 months, the accumulated increase reached 13.16%, according to the FipeZAP Index.
 

This scenario reflects the impact of rising interest rates, restrictions on real estate credit and Caixa's new rules for financing. With fewer people able to buy a property, demand for rentals grew – and with no signs of changing in the short term.
 

More and more Brazilians are living on rent
 

The IBGE showed that between 2010 and 2022, the population living on rent increased from 16.4% to 20.9%. And this trend is not expected to change anytime soon, as there is no forecast of a significant drop in the basic interest rate.
 

The threat of interventionist measures
 

In an interview with Valor Econômico, I warned about the risk of Brazil following a path already tested – and failed – in Lisbon, Barcelona and New York. In these cities, the government tried to contain the rise in rents with adjustment limits and restrictions on seasonal rentals, but the effect was the opposite: less supply, fewer investors and even higher prices.
 

In Berlin, construction companies simply migrated to other cities, worsening the housing crisis. Without new projects, supply fell and properties became even more expensive.
 

What can really work?
 

If the objective is to make housing more affordable, the way forward is not to restrict investors, but to encourage supply. What needs to be done:
 

✅ Facilitate financing for your first home

✅ Stimulate the construction of new properties

✅ Invest in infrastructure to create new housing hubs
 

The debate on rent control tends to be superficial and politicized, without considering the real impacts on the sector and those looking for a property. Brazil may soon enter this discussion, and the real estate market needs to be prepared.